The metal known as Dr. Copper, a classic gauge of global economic health, is now flashing recessionary warnings just as it heads into a historically weak seasonal window. Given this backdrop, we want to analyse the data in more detail.
Trump is now backing out of the extreme positions and the markets are taking a big breath of relief. However, what we got today is just an indication of Trump’s willingness not to remove Powell and “be nice to China”.
Risk assets staged a recovery yesterday amid growing hopes for a de-escalation in US-China trade tensions. President Trump also eased concerns he might fire Federal Reserve Chair Powell.
The main risk to this seasonal view is a renewed policy shock that reinforces tariff fears or disrupts global copper supply chains — keeping U.S. copper futures bid.
Given the situation in the USD Index, stocks, and how strongly silver reacted to the first wave of selling, it seems that much bigger declines are just around the corner.
Trump surprised markets with a 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs for most trading partners. This provided a boost to risk assets, including commodities. However, there’s still plenty of uncertainty as the US again increased tariffs on China.
